← Curio Grand Archive Mercurial Heart Regionals
Wind ArcaneTier 3
at Curio Grand Archive Mercurial Heart Regionals
decks
1
(1.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
7
2-5-0
overall winrate
28.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
40.3%
avg ELO -4.9 per match
expected value
45.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1021
· median 1021
· range 1021–1021
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1006
Q1 1182
Q3 1340
1656
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 15.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.4% | -12.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 11.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.9% | -12.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 7.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.5% | +18.5 |
| Wind Allies | 7.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 3.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.6 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% | -16.1 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 1.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.9% | -12.9 |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Merlin | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Lorraine | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 1.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.2% | -14.1 |
| Wind Slimes | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Wind Arcane decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
